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NBA Draft Lottery Odds – Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Favored to Get #1 Pick

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

May 16, 2023 · 8:58 AM PDT

NBA Draft Lottery 2022
May 17, 2022; Chicago, IL, USA; An overall shot during the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NBA Draft Lottery takes place tonight (Tuesday, May 16) with the right to select Victor Wembanyana on the line
  • Three teams are co-favored to get the #1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds
  • See the odds for all 14 teams in the running for the #1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

Tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the annual NBA Draft Lottery will take place. This year’s lottery carries more important than usual with generational talent Victor Wembanyana heavily favored to go #1 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft odds.

As per current NBA rules, the teams with the three-worst records in the league all have an equal chance (14%) to get the #1 pick in the lottery.

The table below lists the NBA Draft Lottery odds at DraftKings along with the implied probability of the odds, and the real probability of each team winning the lottery.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Player Odds Implied Probability of Odds Real Chance
Pistons +550 15.38% 14.0%
Spurs +550 15.38% 14.0%
Rockets +550 15.38% 14.0%
Hornets +650 13.33% 12.5%
Trail Blazers +800 11.11% 10.5%
Magic +900 10.0% 9.0%
Pacers +1200 7.69% 6.8%
Wizards +1200 7.69% 6.7%
Jazz +1800 5.26% 4.5%
Mavericks +2800 3.45% 3.0%
Thunder +4500 2.17% 1.8%
Bulls +4500 2.17% 1.7%
Raptors +8000 1.23% 1.0%
Pelicans +16000 0.62% 0.5%

The Pistons, Spurs, and Rockets are all listed as +550 co-favorites with the Hornets (+650) and Trail Blazers (+800) rounding out the top five.


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Odds from DraftKings on May 16, 2023. Claim a DraftKings promo code here.

No Value in NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Seasoned bettors will note that all the options on the board have negative expected value, meaning the real chances of the wager hitting are lower than the implied probability of the odds.

Don’t bother “shopping around”. The odds at FanDuel are identical for the top-five teams and actually slightly worse for the rest of the board.

If you have a free bet and are looking for some entertainment tonight, do as you please. But there is no edge to be had here so it would be unwise to wager real money.

NBA Draft Lottery History

Year Winner Chances #1 Pick
2022 Magic 14.0% Paolo Banchero
2021 Pistons 14.0% Cade Cunningham
2020 Timberwolves 14.0% Anthony Edwards
2019 Pelicans 6.0% Zion Williamson
2018 Suns 25.0% Deandre Ayton
2017 Nets 25.0% Markelle Fultz (76ers)
2016 76ers 25.0% Ben Simmons
2015 Timberwolves 25.0% Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Cavaliers 1.7% Andrew Wiggins
2013 Cavaliers 15.6% Anthony Bennett

In seven of the last eight lotteries, the #1 pick was won by a team that had the best odds or was tied for the best odds. The only break in that trend game in 2019 when the New Orleans Pelicans won the lottery with just a 6% chance.

The 1993 Sacramento Kings hold the record for winning the lottery with the lowest probability. Sacramento won the 1993 NBA draft lottery with just a 1.57% chance, taking franchise cornerstone Chris Webber in the aftermath.

The 2014 Cavaliers and 2008 Bulls both win the lottery with a 1.7% chance in their respective seasons. While the Bulls won the right to draft Derrick Rose, the Cavs’ reward was a mere Andrew Wiggins.

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