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Opening Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Odds – Point Spread, Total & Moneyline

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

May 21, 2023 · 7:58 PM PDT

Jimmy Butler looks to make a pass
May 21, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) passes against Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) during the first quarter in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • Miami took a 3-0 stranglehold over Boston in the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night
  • Despite the dominating performance to date from the Heat, the Celtics have opened as favorites for the fourth straight game
  • Below, see the opening Game 4 Celtics vs Heat odds, including the spread, moneyline and total

“Statement win” doesn’t do justice to the Miami Heat’s Game 3 demolition of the Boston Celtics. “Declaration win” is closer. After a 128-102 blowout, the Heat now lead the Celtics 3-0 in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference finals, needing just one more victory to book their ticket to the 2023 NBA finals.

Oddsmakers are finally buying into Miami’s resurgence. The opening odds for Game 4 slightly favor the Heat, marking the first time this postseason that the Celtics have been underdogs.

Opening Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Celtics +1.5 (-110) +100 O 214.5 (-110)
Miami Heat -1.5 (-110) -118 U 214.5 (-110)

The NBA betting odds for Game 4 list the Heat as 1.5-point favorites and -118 on the moneyline. The Celtics come back as +100 road underdogs, while the game total has opened at 214.5, which is identical to the total in Games 2 and 3.

Game 4 is scheduled for 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, May 23, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.

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Heat Dismantle Celtics on Sunday Night

Miami picked up right where they left off in Game 3. After two massive upsets in Boston, the Heat steamrolled the Celtics 128-102 on Sunday night to take a 3-0 stranglehold on the series.

The first 10 minutes were a back-and-forth affair, but Miami seized control with an 8-0 run late in the first quarter – which gave them a nine-point lead – and never looked back. They had opened up a 15-point lead by halftime and doubled it by the end of three.

What made the Game 3 result all the more surprising was the fact that Jimmy Butler looked positively pedestrian. Miami’s superstar, who’s averaging over 30 points per game in the postseason, scored just 16 on 5-13 shooting.  Instead, it was the Heat’s supporting cast that led the way, spearheaded by Gabe Vincent (29 points), Duncan Robinson (22), and Caleb Martin (18).

As a team, Miami shot 56.8% from the floor (46-81), including a ludicrous 54.3% from three (19-35).

On the Boston side, Jayson Tatum (14 points on 6-18 shooting) and Jaylen Brown (12 points on 6-17 shooting) continued to struggle, and the secondary options were no better.  The Celtics shot just 39.8% from the floor (39-98) and a frigid 26.2% from beyond the arc (11-42). They actually out-rebounded Miami by a wide margin (57-35), but ice-cold shooting and lethargic defense made the extra possessions count for naught.

Celtics vs Heat Series Results

Game Final Score Moneyline Winner ATS Winner O/U Winner
Game 1 123-116 Heat (+310) Heat (+9) Over (212)
Game 2 111-105 Heat (+354) Heat (+10) Over (214.5)
Game 3 128-102 Heat (+157) Heat (+4.5) Over (214.5)

Boston vs Miami Game 4 Expected Line Movement

Don’t expect the moneyline or spread to move much. The Game 3 odds opened at Boston -3 and, after some early money came in on the Celtics, moved to -4.5. But then the public was all over Miami, and the NBA public betting splits show that over 70% of the ATS and moneyline handles were on the Heat to cover/win outright by tip-off time.

The advanced analytics from the regular season indicate Boston is a considerably better team. Oddsmakers are aware that sharps will hammer Boston at plus-money if the moneyline skews further to the Heat. But now they’re also aware the public will hammer Miami if the odds get too juicy on the Heat side.

The over/under is likely to creep up by a point after the first three games all went over, two of them comfortably.

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